See You Later WiMAX

I've written here in the past about WiMAX and the slow but inevitable take over by LTE. Well, it's starting soon - at least with Sprint's wireless services. Here's some details from an Inside Sprint blog post yesterday:

• On 6/7, smartphone customers in markets slated for LTE will be notified via text message of the upcoming launch.
• The message states: SprintFreeMsg: Ready for some GREAT news? Sprint is rolling out an all-new network in (insert city here). Learn more at sprint.us/sat Reply End to stop.
• Sprint’s all-new network launches by mid-summer 2012 in 4 cities: Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta.
• More cities launch later this summer and throughout the year.
• The all-new network includes the launch of 4G LTE and improvements to Sprint’s 3G network.

Benefits include:

• More reliable connection to voice calls, emails, and apps, and the internet
• Expanded coverage in their area
• Faster downloading, surfing and streaming
• Improved indoor/outdoor signal strength
• Enhanced voice quality
• Fewer dropped calls

See you later WiMAX!

Worldwide 4G Wireless Service Deployments

TeleGeography’s 4G Research Service has a new report out on worldwide 4G service deployment. Here's some highlights from the report.

• There were more than 600 WiMAX networks either live or at the planning/deployment stage by the end of 2009.
• The number of WiMAX deployments significantly exceeds HSPA and LTE deployments.
• Only around 300 cellular networks have been upgraded with HSPA technology and fewer than 70 operators have committed to deploying LTE equipment.
• Only a relatively small number of these WiMAX systems offer wide coverage areas; most only offer local or regional service.
• Late 2009 saw the introduction of the world’s first commercial LTE networks, with TeliaSonera beginning to offer limited services in Stockholm and Oslo.
• 2010 is expected to bring further LTE service launches in Europe, the US and Asia.

Where is it? Here's a great WiMAX deployment map from TeleGeography --> (click to enlarge).

LTE and WiMAX services both get lumped in to the 4G category. In the U.S. we're seeing Sprint/Clearwire rolling out WiMAX is selected areas (currently in 27 cities) and we'll see Verizon and AT&T launch their LTE services this year.

Which technology will "win"? TeleGeography analyst Peter Bell is quoted in the report press release:

While the footprint of WiMAX worldwide is still growing steadily, LTE deployments should gain momentum in 2010 and 2011. With LTE receiving strong backing from major cellular operators and equipment vendors, we project that LTE subscribers will ramp up far more quickly than WiMAX subscribers.

WiMAX is not going away however. Here's Peter Bell's response to the question:

The answer to the question ’LTE or WiMAX?’ is both. LTE and WiMAX both have roles to play, and both technologies will be with us for years to come.

To find out more about TeleGeography's 4G report, visit http://www.telegeography.com/product-info/4g/index.php.

Telco TV Subscribers Predicted To Double by 2011

Here's some interesting numbers from a new ABI Research report:

• Global pay-TV subscribers will number more than 730 million by the end of 2011.
• North America has the highest subscriber penetration and should reach 115.4 million by the end of 2011.
• Western Europe has the highest Telco TV penetration rate and continues to increase in subscriber numbers, especially in France, Italy and Germany.
• North America and Asia-Pacific regions are the second and third highest in Telco TV penetration. The numbers of subscribers in those regions are forecast to exceed 9 million and 15 million respectively by the end of 2011.
• In the Asia-Pacific region South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan are the leading countries in Telco TV adoption.
• Telco TV subscribers will number 47 million by the end of 2011, with a CAGR of 22.5% over the next five years (2009-2014).

Traditional Telco providers (like AT&T and Verizon in the U.S.) should continue to push hard and try and lock customers into broadband-based voice, video and data (triple play) contract offerings. What about the other providers? ABI Research associate Khin Sandi Lynn is quoted - Other type of pay-TV platforms, satellite, cable and terrestrial are also found to be increasing, although at a slower rate.

Wireless providers are not specifically mentioned in the summary but I'm guessing they will be next year as higher-bandwidth fourth-generation (4G), LTE and WiMAX service offerings grow in 2010.

You can get more information on this ABI Research report here.

Vermont + Fairpoint = WiMax

Mike Q sent along a link from Information Week titled WiMax Coming To Remote Regions Of Vermont. The article describes how FairPoint, Nortel, and Airspan Networks are investing in building out the 3.65 GHZ spectrum to help spur the use of fixed WiMax in many regions of Vermont.

I've written here in the past about Verizon's sale earlier this year of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont networks to Fairpoint Communications. I've also written about a successful WiMAX implementation in Alaska and questioned the use of WiMax in rural areas to close the broadband divide.

Here's a couple of quotes from the Information Week article:

Nortel and Airspan Networks reported this week that they will supply 802.16d WiMax equipment for the Vermont deployment, which, because it will operate in the 3.65 GHz band, is unlicensed and relatively inexpensive. Scott Wickware, general manager of Nortel, said he believes the Vermont rollout is the largest 3.65 GHz WiMax scheduled for installation to date.

Noting that it is less expensive to use wireless in many regions, Nortel said the FCC's decision last year to approve the use of the 3.65 GHZ spectrum is helping spur the use of fixed WiMax in many regions that previously weren't able to obtain broadband technology.

The article quotes range of a few miles with up to 10 miles where signals have little or no interference and have no obstructions. Transmission bandwidths are quoted ranging from 1 Mbps to as much as 5 Mbps in some cases.

Maybe WiMAX Is Not Dead

I've written here frequently about WiMAX - a couple of weeks ago I even asked if it was dead! However, I have not forgotten about the efforts of Clearwire and Sprint NexTel to build out a national WiMAX network. Yesterday, Clearwire told Unstrung the company is expecting to close the deal, securing a $3.2 billion Sprint Nextel investment ((with $3 billion from Intel, Google, Comcast and Time Warner). The deal has met resistance from AT&T with the company complaining to the FCC about the combined spectrum that would be held by the the two companies.

Clearwire is currently running a "pre-WiMAX" fixed wireless network using proprietary technology from NextNet. The company has plans to go live with its first WiMAX (802.16e) service in Portland, Oregon in the fourth quarter of this year and follow that with Atlanta, Grand Rapids, and Las Vegas. Unstrung quotes a Clearwire spokeswoman:

While we are in a great position to launch mobile WiMAX in our Portland market by the end of the year, the timing of the commercial launch is based on a timely close of the Sprint transaction and whether we choose to secure additional financing in the interim.

I can see a place for WiMAX in rural areas - parts of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont could certainly benefit. Earlier this year I heard rumors (just rumors!) Fairpoint Communications was considering building their own WiMAX network after the Verizon territory purchase. I certainly scratched my head doubting Fairpoint would consider the cost of building something like that on their own. Now..... a Fairpoint partnership with Clearwire / Sprint Nextel building out rural areas with WiMAX...... that could be very interesting.

Is WiMAX Dead?

International telecom advisors Analysys Mason, headquartered in London with offices in over 80 countries, released an interesting report last week on worldwide wireless opportunities for revenue growth. The report predicts cellular technologies will take the largest revenue share between now and 2015. Globally, the study predicts 2.1 billion wireless broadband customers will generate USD784 billion in service revenue by 2015.

Here's some detail from the report:

The revenue increase of about 2400% will be underpinned by continued developments in wireless technologies, improvements in devices and more flexible pricing options.

Because W-CDMA to HSPA to HSPA+ is the natural evolution path for GSM operators, the number of HSPA and HSPA+ customers worldwide will increase from 61 million at the end of 2008 to 1.1 billion at the end of 2015.

Cellular technologies will dominate wireless broadband services, with twenty times as many users as WiMAX by the end of 2015.

LTE will take off relatively slowly, but its customer base will reach 440 million by 2015, with associated revenue of USD194 billion.

WiMAX will be squeezed from developed markets by fixed and cellular broadband services and by 2015 will serve just 98 million customers worldwide, of which 92% will be in developing regions.

The report continues:

WiMAX will fail to achieve a significant share of the rapidly developing wireless broadband market, contributing only 2% of global revenue. “By 2015, there will be twenty times as many customers for cellular broadband services as for WiMAX,” according to Dr Alastair Brydon, co-author of the report, “The vast majority of MNOs will not break ranks to WiMAX, but will upgrade to LTE, resulting in over four times more LTE users by the end of 2015.”

It looks like WiMAX may not fit predicted migration paths according to Analysys Mason. You can get details from the report here.

WiMax Sprint / Clearwire / Comcast / Time Warner Deal Announced

Earlier this week I wrote about it and yesterday Sprint Nextel and Clearwire Corporation announced the combination of wireless broadband divisions to form a single $14.5 billion company that will keep the name Clearwire. Also participating and throwing in a combined $3.2 billion are Intel, Google, Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Bright House Networks and Trilogy Equity Partners. Trilogy is run by John Stanton, a wireless veteran who made billions when he sold VoiceStream and Western Wireless.

Back in 2006, Mike Q and I did a podcast on WiMax, Clearwire and Clearwire's Founder Chairman Craig McCaw. Here's what we said about Clearwire back in September 2006:

Craig McCaw is a visionary, who has had an uncanny ability to predict the future of technology. WiMAX has the potential to do for broadband access what cell phones have done for telephony - replacing cable and DSL services, providing universal Internet access just about anywhere - especially for suburban and rural blackout areas.

Just like in the early 1980's Clearwire's Craig O. McCaw has been buying up licensed radio spectrum. You may not have heard of Craig but in the early 80's he recognized local cell permits being sold by the the FCC were greatly undervalued and he started bidding cellular phone licenses. He did his buying under the radar screen of the telcos and, by the time they recognized what he was doing it was basically too late - Craig had already purchased and owned licenses in most of the major markets.

Today - Clearwire, under Craig's direction, has quietly purchased enough licensed radio spectrum to build a national WiMAX network.

Craig McCaw and Clearwire have the spectrum, the money, the partners, superior wireless broadband technology when compared to services like 3G and the experience to make this work..... think about it..... Intel makes the WiMax radio components for computers, Google creates applications that can use WiMax services, Comcast, Time Warner and Brighthouse bundle WiMax products and services and market to their customers.... ..

According to an AP post yesterday:

The new company plans to make its service available to 120 million to 140 million people in the U.S. by the end of 2010, although company officials acknowledged they'll need to raise or borrow up to $2.3 billion more to make that happen. Alternatively, they said they could shrink the size of the network.

The deal has been approved by all companies but still must be approved by Clearwire shareholders and regulators. It is expected to close in the fourth quarter of this year.

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To read show notes and listen to Mike Q and my 17 minute and 20 second podcast (Sept 2006) titled WiMax - Why Not?, click here. Listen to it directly in your web browser by clicking here. If you have iTunes installed you can subscribe to our podcasts by clicking here.

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Will The Cable Companies Build a Mobile Broadband Network?

Scott Moritz wrote an interesting piece at CNNMoney/Fortune titled Comcast pins hopes on a mobile future. Cable companies Comcast and Time Warner have been negotiating with Sprint, Clearwire, Intel, and Google to launch a joint effort to build a national WiMax network. I've written here in the past about WiMax and the relationships Clearwire, Sprint and Google were building and it makes sense to see the cable companies looking at providing broadband wireless services.

We're seeing some interesting customer movement in the industry - another Fortune piece from May 1 describes Comcast's first quarter earnings, here's a couple of interesting quotes from that piece:

• Comcast lost 57,000 basic video subscribers, but added 494,000 digital cable subscribers.
• The company said 65% of video subscribers now have digital service, up from 55% a year ago, and 43% have so-called advanced services like digital video recorders or high-definition TV, up from 38% last year.
• The company also added 492,000 high-speed Internet users and 639,000 Comcast Digital Voice phone customers.

What's happening? We've got the telcos like Verizon and AT&T chasing new video customers and the cable companies like Comcast and Time Warner chasing new voice customers. Both AT&T and Verizon sell 3G wireless services - it makes sense for the cable companies to add a wireless product and it makes a lot os sense to partner with existing wireless providers like Clearwire and Sprint. JPMorgan analyst Jon Chaplin is quoted in the earlierFortune piece: By creating a joint WiMax venture, "it would cost them a fraction of what it would cost them to build out" their own network or to buy Sprint outright.

Keep watching - the deal could happen as early as this week.

AT&T Looking to Close Broadband Divide with WiMax

I've written in the past and Mike Q and I have podcasted about rural areas and how the lack of broadband availability (Cable modem or DSL) can handicap residents including students. WiMax is one of the more promising technologies that can help solve this problem and it looks like AT&T is moving in this direction. The company launched a trial with their Alascom subsidiary in Juneau, Alaska where customers can purchase WiMax service starting at $19.95 a month. Alascom is using Alvarion IEEE 802.16e-based WiMAX equipment to provide speeds up to 1Mbps symmetrical. According to an Alascom press release:

"AT&T Alascom is fully committed to deliver the benefits of broadband Internet service as widely as possible," said Mike Felix, president of AT&T Alascom. "Our deployment of WiMAX-based high speed Internet service in Juneau is the result of years of research into new-generation broadband technologies that are well-suited for deployment in challenging environments such as Alaska. Today, those efforts enable us to deliver a compelling new broadband choice for thousands of Alaskans, including many who have previously not had access to high speed Internet service."

The press release concludes:

"Outside Alaska, AT&T will evaluate opportunities to deploy fixed wireless technologies in other areas of the country based on customer needs and the results of its existing deployments."

DSL Reports Monday quoted anonymous sources saying the company will likely be rolling this out in some areas in the lower 48 - specifically the south:

"AT&T's limited spectrum holdings could make it hard for the operator to take on serious deployment outside of the South"

"Spectrum will also be an issue for AT&T if it wants to deploy outside the South. The 22 2.3 Ghz licenses that it holds come from the BellSouth merger and only cover some of the Southern markets that operator provided service in. AT&T sold off its remaining 2.5 Ghz licenses to Clearwire LLC earlier this year."

I've written about the Sprint/Clearwire WiMax initiative which is directed towards mobile devices (hand held computers, phones, PDAs, etc). This AT&T project appears to be directed as a residential and business broadband alternative - exactly the kind of technology we need to start closing the broadband divide in the U.S.

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Read Show Notes and listen to Mike Q and my latest Podcast titled Micro-blogging linked here.
Podcasts also free on iTunes.
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Google Joins Sprint and Clearwire in WiMAX Initiative

Today Google and Sprint have announced a partnership - Sprint has agreed to provide Open Standard Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) to Google, allowing Google to develop applications on Sprint web-enabled devices. Services developed for the WiMAX network will include search, e-mail, calendaring, and social networking. The Sprint/Clearwire WiMAX network is scheduled to launch early 2008. Here's a quote from Yahoo Technology News:

.... analysts were quick to point out that the cooperative agreement doesn't exclude the two companies from competing against each other down the road.

"It's an absolute no-brainer" for Google to increase its presence in the wireless sector by working with as many operators as possible and helping them customize services," said Andy Buss, principle analyst with Canalys.com. "But Google is looking to become an operator in its own right."

"It would be good for Google to control its own platform," he said. "They need to make some risk-sharing investments in the underlying networks to have a say in how they're architectured and developed."

In Europe, Buss didn't rule out the possibility of Google becoming a mobile virtual network operator, piggybacking on existing networks. This approach, he said, would allow the company to establish a "consistent" level of expertise across highly fragmented Europe.

In a separate but related topic Google is also in the market for some spectrum of it's own. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) will be auctioning off the valuable 700MHz range frequency spectrum next year. There is a lot of political positioning happening now and I'll write about it in a future blog so there is not confusion.

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Listen to Mike Q and my latest podcast "Skype, More Skype, Goodbye Copper and Casual Gaming" linked here.

Sprint and Clearwire Partner on WiMAX Initiative

A few days ago Sprint and Clearwire announced plans to work together in the buildout of a national WIMAX network.

According to a press release on Sprint's website:

"The WiMAX network is being designed to deliver mobile broadband services in urban, suburban and rural markets, and enable significantly greater depth and breadth of services. The arrangement also is expected to enable each company to increase capital efficiency and reduce overall network development and operating costs".

"Sprint Nextel and Clearwire expect to build their respective portions of the nationwide network, and enable roaming between the respective territories. The companies also will work jointly on product and service evolution, shared infrastructure, branding, marketing and distribution. Additionally, the companies intend to exchange selected 2.5 GHz spectrum in order to optimize build-out, development and operation of the network".

I've blogged about WiMAX and Clearwire last September - that blog is linked here. In that blog I described how Clearwire, under Craig O. McCaw's direction, had quietly purchased enough licensed radio spectrum to build a national WiMAX network. Last September I also discussed how Sprint had commtted to the buildout of a national WiMAX network, at that time in competition to Clearwire.

Here's more from July 2007 the Sprint press release:

"Under the network build-out plan, Sprint Nextel will focus its efforts primarily on geographic areas covering approximately 185 million people, including 75 percent of the people located in the 50 largest markets, while Clearwire will focus on areas covering approximately 115 million people. Initially, the two companies expect to build out network coverage to approximately 100 million people by the end of 2008, with seamless roaming enabled between the deployed areas".

"...Sprint Nextel expects to commence the initial stage of its mobile WiMAX network deployments by year-end 2007 and both companies expect to launch commercial service in the first half of 2008. The companies individually are working with a broad range of manufacturers including Intel, Motorola, Samsung, Nokia and others to create an ecosystem of chips, products and software designed to provide mobile WiMAX access".

I think we'll see more of these kinds of partnerships develop as providers combine forces to offer customers higher bandwidths in wider coverage areas. I wish I has bought some stock last September!

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Listen to Mike Q and my latest podcast "Skype, More Skype, Goodbye Copper and Casual Gaming" linked here.