An Exponential Leap: The Emergence of AGI - Machines That Can Think

Tech companies are in a rush. They're trying to lock in as much electricity as they can for the next few years. They're also buying up all the computer components they can find. What's all this for? They're building machines that can think and referring to the tech as Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI.

On June 3 Ex-OpenAI researcher (yeah he was fired) Leopold Aschenbrenner published a 162 page interesting document titled SITUATIONAL AWARENESS The Decade Ahead. In his paper Aschenbrenner describes AGI as not just another incremental tech advance – he views it as a paradigm shift that's rapidly approaching an inflection point.

I’ve read the whole thing - here's my short list of highlights by topic.

Compute Infrastructure Scaling: We've moved beyond petaflop systems. The dialogue has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion, and now to trillion-dollar infrastructures. This exponential growth in computational power is not just impressive—it's necessary for the next phase of AI development.

AGI Timeline Acceleration: Current projections suggest AGI capabilities surpassing human-level cognition in specific domains by 2025-2026. By the decade's end, we're looking at potential superintelligence—systems that outperform humans across all cognitive tasks.

Resource Allocation and Energy Demands: There's an unprecedented scramble for resources. Companies are securing long-term power contracts and procuring voltage transformers at an alarming rate. We're anticipating a surge in American electricity production by tens of percentage points to meet the demand of hundreds of millions of GPUs.

Geopolitical Implications: The race for AGI supremacy has clear national security implications. We're potentially looking at a technological cold war, primarily between the US and China, with AGI as the new nuclear equivalent.

Algorithmic Advancements: While the mainstream still grapples with language models "predicting the next token," the reality is far more complex. We're seeing advancements in multi-modal models, reinforcement learning, and neural architecture search that are pushing us closer to AGI.

Situational Awareness Gap: There's a critical disparity between public perception and the reality known to those at the forefront of AGI development. This information asymmetry could lead to significant societal and economic disruptions if not addressed.

Some Technical Challenges Ahead:

- Scaling laws for compute, data, and model size

- Achieving robust multi-task learning and zero-shot generalization

- Solving the alignment problem to ensure AGI systems remain beneficial

- Developing safe exploration methods for AGI systems

- Creating scalable oversight mechanisms for increasingly capable AI

An over reaction by Aschenbrenner?  Some think so. Regardless - this stuff is not going away and as an educator and technologist, I feel a responsibility to not only teach the tech but also have students consider the ethical and societal implications of this kind of work. The future isn't just coming—it's accelerating towards us at an unprecedented rate. Are we prepared for the AI  technical, ethical, and societal challenges that lie ahead?

Will Java Survive?

We've been hearing for years about Java's pending demise but...... it lives on. That may be changing though. A couple weeks ago Oracle announced the upcoming end of Java 8 updates. Details:

• After January 19 public updates for Java SE 8 will not be available for business, commercial, or production use without a commercial license. 
• However, public updates for Java SE 8 will be available for individual, personal use through at least the end of 2020. 

Previously, Oracle had extended public updates for JDK 8, the development kit for Java SE 8, until at least January 2019, after having originally planned to end them in September. 2018. 

Confused? Here's a little more timeline info:

• JDK 8 debuted in March 2014
• Oracle released JDK 9 in September 2017 
• JDK 10 released March 2018, moved to a six-month release schedule
• JDK 11 due for release September 2018

What does this mean? Software Developer Marc van Woerkom has some interesting questions in a post over on Quora titled Is Java dying soon or not?

• Will this lead to the end of corporate freeloading and speed up of Java development under the guide of Oracle?
• Will companies band together and fund development for some free to use for all Java versions?
• Will the open source crowd pick up development stronger than it does now?
• Or will some other language benefit? (C#? JavaScript? Elixir? ..)

How about the classroom? In the academic world we've seen growing introductory Computer Science and Computer Engineering course use of high-level scripting languages. These include Python (my favorite right now), JavaScript (different than Java) and Ruby. Arguably, JavaScript probably makes the greatest sense of the three when it comes to employment. Most developers are using JavaScript  along with other languages in their day-to-day work. JavaScript is pretty versatile and works well for front-end web development and is increasingly used for back-end development. It is also being used for game development and Internet of Things (IoT) applications. 

According to a Philip Guo survey taken way back in 2014, Python has overtaken Java as the most popular introductory language of instruction at top US Computer Science programs. That said - Java remains an excellent first year/introductory language for Computer Science and Computer Engineering students. I've always believed that first course depends more on the quality of instruction and not the language de jour...... not going any further there though - that's for another post!

You can download Java SE from the Oracle Technology network.

U.S. Needs More Cyber Security Training and Education

Richard Marshall, director of global cyber-security management at the Department of Homeland Security made some interesting comments yesterday at the FOSE government IT show in Washington, DC. FOSE is a conference focused on cyber-security issues facing the public sector and what it means for protection against threats, cloud computing and new open government directives.

Here's a few quotes Marshall made at the conference taken from a post over at esecurityplanet.com

Working in concert with the government, the private sector has made significant strides in improving software security and ferreting out vulnerabilities in the supply chain, but the flow of cyber-security experts graduating from the nation's universities with advanced degrees remains anemic.

One of the most important steps policymakers can take is to nourish the education and training of a new crop of security expert.

No matter how successful we are in those two elements, we are going to fail if we don't invest more money, time, attention and rewards to educate the workforce. That's our legacy-to-be.

"The IT industry provides a one trillion -- with a 'T' -- dollar contribution to the U.S. gross domestic product. If you're looking for a metric for cyber-security, money is a good metric.

And my favorite quote from the piece which I'll probably catch some flack for posting:

Look at all the great football and basketball programs. They're all on scholarships. They're not playing for fun -- they're playing for money. We need to do the same thing with our computer science students.

Nicely said.

Women, Technology and Leadership

Yesterday our oldest daughter Gabby, along with 31 other other high school women, received an Aspirations in Computing and Technology award from the National Center for Women & Information Technology (NCWIT) and Bank of America at the Technology Stars of the Future Technology Showcase & Awards Ceremony in Charlotte, NC. At the ceremony, each of the young women were recognized for their outstanding aptitude and interest in technology and computing, leadership ability, academic history, and plans for post-secondary education.

NCWIT is a coalition of more than 160 prominent corporations, academic institutions, government agencies, and non-profits working to increase women's participation in information technology (IT).

Here's some interesting facts from the NCWIT website:

• Girls represented just 15 percent of Advanced Placement computer science (CS) exam-takers in 2006; that’s the lowest female representation of any AP exam.
• In 2007 women earned only 19 percent of all CS degrees. Back in 1984, women earned 37 percent of CS degrees.
• Women hold more than half of all professional occupations in the U.S. but fewer than 26 percent of all computing-related occupations.
• Only 13 percent of Fortune 500 technology companies have women corporate officers.
• A study on U.S. technology patenting reveals that patents created by mixed-gender teams are the most highly cited (an indicator of their innovation and usefulness); yet women were involved in only 9 percent of U.S. tech patents.
  

Lucy Sanders, CEO and Co-founder of NCWIT is quoted in a press release about the event, saying “Encouraging young women’s interest in technology careers is critical. Our workforce needs their creativity and their innovation.”

Gabby had a blast at the ceremony yesterday, making lots of new female friends that have just as much of a passion and interest in technology as she does. Check out the list of winners linked here.

Congrats to all the Aspirations in Computing and Technology winners!!!

Some Interesting Wireless Device Development Platforms

Last month the Rutberg & Co. Wireless Industry Newsletter asked the question Will 2009 be the year of the mobile app? I've been watching the different mobile development platforms fairly closely because these applications offer some great teaching and learning potential in our classrooms and some excellent business opportunities for our entrepreneurial students. The Rutberg newsletter lists four different device platforms:

iPhone (http://developer.apple.com/iphone/ )

Most developers consider the iPhone SDK king right now - Apple currently provides the richest development environment along with marketing and the App store where developers can sell their applications.

Android (http://code.google.com/android/ )

Googles entry involves the Open Handset Alliance, a group of more than 30 technology and mobile companies that developed Android.

Ovi (http://ovi.com/services/)

Ovi was launched in late summer 2007 by Nokia as a "personal dashboard" for Nokia smartphones.

Blackberry (http://na.blackberry.com/eng/developers/resources/ )

The company has launched the BlackBerry Developer Zone with resources and information for developers.

Each site offers the equivalent of an SDK along with other developer tools, white papers, forums, videos, etc. The Rutberg newsletter says it well - Apple pioneered the offerings of a compelling data experience to customers, a useful development environment for developers, and a meaningful business model for constituents throughout the ecosystem. Android is furthering the industry shifts through greater levels of openness and broader levels of industry involvement. Ovi and Blackberry are right there in the mix too.

If you currently teach computer programming you should take a close look at each of these development platforms.

Rest In Peace Randy Pausch

"We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the hand" - Randy Pausch

Randy's family announced today that he had passed away from pancreatic cancer. I had written about the last lecture Randy gave last September at Carnegie Mellon after he had been told he only had months to live. The lecture was titled "Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams" and has had millions of views on YouTube. Here's the video of the speech. If you have not seen it - it's worth a watch. If you have seen it - it's worth another watch.



In addition to the video, Randy and Jeffrey Zaslow wrote a book based on the lecture titled The Last Lecture. Amazon asked Andy some questions about the book - here's a piece of how he described it:

The book is a far more personal look at my childhood dreams and all the lessons I've learned. Putting words on paper, I've found, was a better way for me to share all the yearnings I have regarding my wife, children and other loved ones. I knew I couldn't have gone into those subjects on stage without getting emotional.

The book is even better than the lecture.

Randy's wife Jai released a statement this morning - here's a piece of it:

Randy was so happy and proud that the lecture and book inspired parents to revisit their priorities, particularly their relationships with their children. The outpouring of cards and e-mails really sustained him.

Randy will be greatly missed.

Randy Pausch: Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams

"We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the hand" - Randy Pausch

Maybe you've heard of Randy Pausch - he's a 47 year old Carnegie Mellon Computer Science Professor and founder of the Alice software project. In September 2006, he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and on September 18, 2007, after learning the cancer had spread, Randy gave his last lecture at Carnegie Mellon, titled "Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams".

According to his Wikipedia entry, the talk was modeled after an ongoing series of lectures where top academics are asked to think deeply about what matters to them, and then give a hypothetical "final talk," i.e., "what wisdom would you try to impart to the world if you knew it was your last chance?"

I've linked the video below where Randy discusses his childhood dreams, enabling the dreams of others and lessons learned. It's 76 minutes long and worth every single second of watching.



In addition to this video, maybe you caught the Diane Sawyer piece on ABC News last week. Also, Carnegie Mellon has put up a site on Randy's lecture here and Randy has just completed a book based on the lecture.

Randy is still alive and writing about his experience fighting pancreatic cancer here.

Getting Ourselves in Sync

A couple of days ago eWeek.com put up an interesting piece titled Programming Grads Meet a Skills Gap in the Real World. Here's a summary quote from the piece written by Darryl K. Taft:

"In short, many people on both sides of the equation—teachers as well as potential employers—say the educational system is not doing enough to keep pace with the ever-changing needs of IT, and that entering the work force often is as much of an educational experience as is college, particularly for programmers".

Ari Zilka, chief technology officer at Terracotta, in San Francisco, is also quoted in the piece, saying he understands the skills gap after having worked his way in the high-tech industry, while attending the University of California, Berkeley. According to Zilka:

"I found that UC Berkeley had an excellent curriculum but not only was my schooling lagging behind work, it became very hard to even go to school because work had me learning the concepts and their applicability and nuances that teachers didn't even seem to know."

The eWeek piece goes on:

"Zilka noted that many of the new hires he's seen during his career continue to echo the same sentiments as he did".

"Some of the things the school didn't teach Zilka and many who are now entering the work force include issues around communication, development skills, and business and product design.

On the communication front, Zilka said, "Presentation skills are critical, and selling and influencing peers is critical."

"Some of the development skills that schools might emphasize more include design patterns, coding style and practices, scalability and performance tuning, and a focus on the entire software development lifecycle, Zilka said. He noted that things like quality assurance, unit testing, and stage and release are not usually taught".

The piece continues with more comments on the skills gap from faculty at Texas A&M, Carnegie Mellon and Monroe College. Most are in agreement and generally comment that programs are changing to close the gap.

Chris Stephenson, executive director of the Computer Science Teachers Association, in New York, has an excellent quote:

".....but what is really exciting is that I have seen more and more educators (both at the K-12 level and the university level) willing to make these skills part of their curriculum."

Stephenson goes on, believing that subjects like Computer Science should no longer be taught as an "isolated discipline":

"There is little effort made to address issues such as effective team work, project planning and time management, and conflict resolution let alone helping students gain the cultural competencies and effective communication skills that are the key to success in a global economy,"

"Also, not enough effort has been made to show students how computing connects to problem solving in the real world,"

"The good news, however, is that an increasing number of educators are building these skills into the classroom experience. Teachers now have students work in teams on real world projects where the failure to plan together, work together, and communicate effectively are a big part of the evaluation that the students receive."

I'll finish the quotes with one that I feel really hits the need/gap on the head from Rawn Shah, IBM developerWorks Community Programs Manager:

"....software development is becoming much more of a group activity, and there is a lot of sophistication to that in the industry that isn't being replicated in a smaller closed environment like a college," Shah said. "Very often, they simply can't because of the time limitations of the semester-based programs."

If you are an academic - are your students working in teams? Can they communicate effectively with their teams? Are they learning relevant information? Are they ready when they graduate for work? Are there things that you are teaching that are out of date? Are there other courses in your curriculum that could be replaced with more relevant ones? How often do you make revisions to your curriculum? How do you know what you should be teaching?

If you are a business person - how can you help? What can you do to make a difference - to assure graduates you are hiring are properly prepared?

We ask ourselves these kinds of questions daily at our National Science Foundation funded National Center for Telecommunications Technologies - if you would like to learn more feel free to drop me an email at gsnyder@stcc.edu


****
Read Show Notes and listen to Mike Q and my latest Podcast titled Enterprise 2.0 linked here.
Podcasts also free on iTunes.
****